Just a couple of days before the Champions League showdown with Juventus in Turin, league leaders Bayern Munich travel to Augsburg for a Bavarian derby in the Bundesliga on matchday 21. Augsburg are threatened by relegation this season and anything other than a convincing victory for title favourites Bayern would be seen as a huge surprise in the odds tip. The first game was a hard and close fought match, with Bayern narrowly winning 2-1 over Augsburg.
Augsburg have status as Bayern’s bogey team – odds tip with value profit
After a great last season, Augsburg are struggling and sit around the relegation zone in 14th spot with only two points above 16th-placed Werder Bremen. The double burden of the Europa League has obviously taken its toll, where Augsburg will face English side Liverpool in the Round of 32 next week. Coach Markus Weinzierl actually sees the Europa League as a bonus, where they get to play with some of the best teams in Europe. The Bundesliga is his priority, but he knows that Augsburg will face a tough test against defending champions Bayern. Augsburg have not won in three league games but they can boast of being one of Bayern’s bogey teams as they defeated Guardiola’s side twice in the last two seasons. Augsburg achieved two scoreless draws against Hertha and Frankfurt and lost 2-1 to Ingolstadt because of a 83rd minute penalty conversion from Moritz Hartmann. The team of coach Weinzierl will be outsiders in the eyes of the bookmakers in spite of their home advantage. We bet on them in our odds tip. Weinzierl will miss midfielder Baier and defender Callsen-Bracker due to injuries.
Bayern are the favourites – negative team atmosphere
Bayern are the undisputed league leaders in the Bundesliga and have gained a lot of confidence throughout the entire season. Not surprisingly‚ Guardiola’s side have the best away record and lost only once in 20 league games. They defeated VFL Bochum 3-0 in the German Cup quarter-finals and reached the semis for the 7th consecutive year. Bayern have been in the news in recent times for their affairs but it seems that nothing can stop them on the pitch except themselves. They have not lost in five league games and achieved a scoreless draw against Leverkusen last weekend. It will not be an easy game for Bayern as Augsburg are threatened by relegation and relegation battles are always quality. Augsburg have been tough opponents in the past and will give everything to retain the league and therefore play as hard as they can. Bayern were 1-0 down against Augsburg in the first game but ground out a narrow 2-1 victory thanks to a converted penalty by Thomas Mueller in stoppage time. The odds are in favour of Bayern but Guardiola will be without defenders Boateng, Martinez and Benatia. Long-term injured players Goetze and Ribery are also ruled out. Xabi Alonso is sidelined due to a yellow-card suspension.
Odds tip for FC Augsburg versus Bayern Munich
Augsburg have the home advantage and managed to win two of the last four meetings with Bayern but according to the bookmakers, they are just outsiders with odds between 8.00 and 12.50. The best odds of 12.50 for an Augsburg victory have a value profit of 12.31%. Bayern Munich are heavily favoured to win the Bavarian derby with odds from 1.20 to 1.33. A draw is rather unlikely and will pay out odds between 4.80 and 6.25. Our tip: Augsburg were beset by setbacks and had a mediocre season while Bayern are the undisputed league leaders – that’s facts. However, we think that Bayern have a little crisis and there is a negative atmosphere in the team. Moreover, Augsburg have beaten Bayern two times in four games and best odds of 12.50 seem very interesting with a value profit of 12.31%. For that reason, we go for an Augsburg home victory.